基于不确定性分析框架的动态环状河网水质模型——以温州市温瑞塘河为例   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

徐一剑  曾思育  张天柱 《水科学进展》2005,16(4):574-580

以温州市温瑞塘河为背景,基于不确定性分析的框架,开发了动态环状河网水质模型。用HSY(Hornberger,Spear and Young)算法作水质参数的不确定性分析,求得模型参数的空间分布,从而提高模型使用的可靠性、降低决策的风险度。模型由水量子模型及水质子模型两部分组成:水量子模型采用圣维南方程并用四级解法求解;水质子模型采用CSTR(Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor)模型的机理,并结合环状河网特征作了修正,由于只需解常微分方程,因而避免了矩阵求解,显著提高了计算效率,使得用HSY算法进行不确定性分析成为可能。模型选取温州市温瑞塘河流域的鹿城区河网进行了首次应用,用HSY算法率定水质参数并讨论了参数的不确定性。对参数率定结果进行验证,结果比较理想。最后简要讨论了参数不确定性传递。  相似文献   

叶尔羌河冰川阻塞性洪水发生的气象因素     

刘皑国 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2005,28(2):13-15

2002年8月12日，叶尔羌河再次发生因高原冰川阻塞形成的洪水。本文对叶尔羌河历次高原冰川阻塞性洪水的成因以及与气象的关系做了较详尽的分析，并提出了从气象角度预报该类型洪水的方法和利用卫星遥感技术对冰川阻塞湖进行监测的建议，期望对叶尔羌河今后的防洪工作有一些指导意义。  相似文献   

南疆塔里木河流域生态环境近期变化的成因解释   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3  

徐羹慧 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2005,28(2):28-31

南疆塔里木河流域的生态环境已引起社会和科技界广泛注意。本文分析了该地区生态环境近期变化的6个主要特点，并用自然和人文社会学观点解释了变化的成因，提出气候变化是该极干旱区生态环境变化中最活跃的主要自然因素及其影响方式，但在人类主要活动地区盆地主体，人类活动对生态环境变化起着决定性的作用。  相似文献   

一次冰雹天气过程分析     

白惠星  王健 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2002,25(3):7-8

对奎玛流域一次冰雹天气的分析表明，在巴尔喀什湖低槽加强东移的环流背景下，低层水汽辐合、抬升启动和层结不稳定有利于该地区强对流的发生、发展，中尺度强对流云团的形成、发展是产生这次冰雹天气的主要原因。  相似文献   

岷江上游干扰岸坡主要表生地质灾害分布特征及成因浅析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

蒋良文  王士天等 《地质灾害与环境保护》2002,13(1):13-17

岷江上游地处我国著名的南北向地震带的中段，因其特定的地质环境导致区内表生地质灾害极为严重。通过对岷江上游（汶川以上）河段的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等表生地质灾害的调查研究，其分布沿岷江两岸具有明显的分段特征与河谷地貌分段基本一致，它们形成发展与特定地形地貌、易崩滑或软弱地层、特殊的构造部位、降雨等密切相关。  相似文献   

雷达遥感在澜沧江中下游地区锰矿调查评价中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

王郁  杨景元 《地质找矿论丛》2002,17(4):271-276

澜沧江吓游地区地处热带-亚热带，植被及第四系覆盖严重，应用雷达遥感技术可以初步揭露植覆盖，利用SAR图像识别主要岩石类型和构造形式，并圈定了主要含锰岩系，进而确定了成锰有利地段。  相似文献   

Iron colloids/organic matter associated transport of major and trace elements in small boreal rivers and their estuaries (NW Russia)     

O. S. Pokrovsky  J. Schott 《Chemical Geology》2002,190(1-4):141-179

The chemical status of major and trace elements (TE) in various boreal small rivers and watershed has been investigated along a 1500-km transect of NW Russia. Samples were filtered in the field through a progressively decreasing pore size (5, 0.8 and 0.22 μm; 100, 10, and 1 kD) using a frontal filtration technique. All major and trace elements and organic carbon (OC) were measured in filtrates and ultrafiltrates. Most rivers exhibit high concentration of dissolved iron (0.2–4 mg/l), OC (10–30 mg/l) and significant amounts of trace elements usually considered as immobile in weathering processes (Ti, Zr, Th, Al, Ga, Y, REE, V, Pb). In (ultra)filtrates, Fe and OC are poorly correlated: iron concentration gradually decreases upon filtration from 5 μm to 1 kD whereas the major part of OC is concentrated in the <1–10 kD fraction. This reveals the presence of two pools of colloids composed of organic-rich and Fe-rich particles. According to their behavior during filtration and association with these two types of colloids, three groups of elements can be distinguished: (i) species that are not affected by ultrafiltration and are present in the form of true dissolved inorganic species (Ca, Mg, Li, Na, K, Sr, Ba, Rb, Cs, Si, B, As, Sb, Mo) or weak organic complexes (Ca, Mg, Sr, Ba), (ii) elements present in the fraction smaller than 1–10 kD prone to form inorganic or organic complexes (Mn, Co, Ni, Zn, Cu, Cd, and, for some rivers, Pb, Cr, Y, HREE, U), and (iii) elements strongly associated with colloidal iron in all ultrafiltrates (P, Al, Ga, REE, Pb, V, Cr, W, Ti, Ge, Zr, Th, U). Based on size fractionation results and taking into account the nominal pore size for membranes, an estimation of the effective surface area of Fe colloids was performed. Although the total amount of available surface sites on iron colloids (i.e., 1–10 μM) is enough to accommodate the nanomolar concentrations of dissolved trace elements, very poor correlation between TE and surface sites concentrations was observed in filtrates and ultrafiltrates. This strongly suggests a preferential transport of TE as coprecipitates with iron oxy(hydr)oxides. These colloids can be formed on redox boundaries by precipitation of Fe(III) from inflowing Fe(II)/TE-rich anoxic ground waters when they meet well-oxygenated surface waters. Dissolved organic matter stabilizes these colloids and prevents their aggregation and coagulation. Estuarine behavior of several trace elements was studied for two small iron- and organic-rich rivers. While Si, Sr, Ba, Rb, and Cs show a clear conservative behavior during mixing of freshwaters with the White sea, Al, Pb and REE are scavenged with iron during coagulation of Fe hydroxide colloids.  相似文献   

A cellular model of Holocene upland river basin and alluvial fan evolution   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

T. J. Coulthard  M. G. Macklin  M. J. Kirkby 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(3):269-288

The CAESAR (Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River) model is used to simulate the Holocene development of a small upland catchment (4·2 km²) and the alluvial fan at its base. The model operates at a 3 m grid scale and simulates every flood over the last 9200 years, using a rainfall record reconstructed from peat bog wetness indices and land cover history derived from palynological sources. Model results show that the simulated catchment sediment discharge above the alluvial fan closely follows the climate signal, but with an increase in the amplitude of response after deforestation. The important effects of sediment storage and remobilization are shown, and findings suggest that soil creep rates may be an important control on long term (>1000 years) temperate catchment sediment yield. The simulated alluvial fan shows a complex and episodic behaviour, with frequent avulsions across the fan surface. However, there appears to be no clear link between fan response and climate or land use changes suggesting that Holocene alluvial fan dynamics may be the result of phases of sediment storage and remobilization, or instabilities and thresholds within the fan itself. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A model of equilibrium bed topography for meander bends with erodible banks     

Stephen E. Darby  Ivana Delbono 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(10):1057-1085

Channel curvature produces secondary currents and a transverse sloping channel bed, along which the depth increases towards the outer bank. As a result deep pools tend to form adjacent to the outer bank, promoting bank collapse. The interaction of sediment grains with the primary and secondary flow and the transverse sloping bed also causes meanders to move different grain sizes in different proportions and directions, resulting in a consistent sorting pattern. Several models have been developed to describe this process, but they all have the potential to over‐predict pool depth because they cannot account for the influence of erodible banks. In reality, bank collapse might lead to the development of a wider, shallower cross‐section and any resulting flow depth discrepancy can bias associated predictions of flow, sediment transport, and grain‐size sorting. While bed topography, sediment transport and grain sorting in bends will partly be controlled by the sedimentary characteristics of the bank materials, the magnitude of this effect has not previously been explored. This paper reports the development of a model of flow, sediment transport, grain‐size sorting, and bed topography for river bends with erodible banks. The model is tested via intercomparison of predicted and observed bed topography in one low‐energy (5·3 W m^?2 specific stream power) and one high‐energy (43·4 W m^?2) study reach, namely the River South Esk in Scotland and Goodwin Creek in Mississippi, respectively. Model predictions of bed topography are found to be satisfactory, at least close to the apices of bends. Finally, the model is used in sensitivity analyses that provide insight into the influence of bank erodibility on equilibrium meander morphology and associated patterns of grain‐size sorting. The sensitivity of meander response to bank cohesion is found to increase as a function of the available stream power within the two study bends. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于DEM的分布式水文模型构建方法   总被引：52，自引：4，他引：52  

王中根  刘昌明  左其亭  刘青娥 《地理科学进展》2002,21(5):430-439

基于 DEM的分布式水文模型是现代水文学同高科技 (如计算机技术、 3S技术等 )相结合的产物 ,是研究变化环境下水文循环与水资源演化规律的理想工具 ,代表了水文模型的最新发展方向。从 DEM的特性出发 ,本文探讨并总结了分布式水文模型的特点、建模思路和模型基本结构框图。在流域离散化方面 ,重点介绍了分布式水文模型常用的三种单元划分方法 ;最后 ,针对分布式水文模型构建问题 ,从“输入模块”、“单元水文模型”、“河网汇流模型”三方面 ,阐述了分布式水文模型微结构构建方法。  相似文献